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US Presidential Election 2008    (Last updated November 04, 2008)

Welcome!  ELECTION-PROJECTION.NET uses computer simulation to calculate the probability of Obama or McCain winning the presidential election based on recent polls. It also includes a unique feature, BattleRank™ which ranks the states most likely to swing the election. For further information, see Methodology. Please also try our Interactive Presidential Election Probability Calculator.

If the election were held TODAY:

McCain Obama
    Probability of Win:    0.1%   99.9%
    Most Likely Electoral Votes:   171 367
    Expected (Average) Electoral Votes:   191.1 346.9

State probability changes in last 10 days:

    McCain: IN+23  MO+21  NC+13  ND+11  OH+7 

    Obama: NV+16  MT+6  NH+6  LA+6  FL+6 

          

Expected Distribution of Electoral Votes

Expected Distribution of Electoral Votes

ANALYSIS (11/4/2008): Today is Election Day. Here at ELECTION-PROJECTION.NET, we've been tracking the polls to keep you constantly updated on the state of the race. But today, none of that matters. The only thing that counts today are the votes. Please go vote and make sure your friends vote, too. Thank you for visiting! - The Webmaster (webmaster at election-projection dot net)

Probability of Win and Expected Electoral Votes

Probability of State Win

BattleRank™: The states most likely to swing the election

Click on a bar for individual state data.

BattleRank LA NH AZ NM GA MT NV ND MN CO MO IN NC VA FL OH PA

Probability of Win by State

Click on a bar for individual state data.

Probability of Win by State WY ID NE UT OK AL TN WV KS KY TX MS SC AR SD AK LA AZ GA MO MT IN ND NC FL OH VA NV CO PA MN NM NH DC DE VT HI ME RI CT IA OR MD WI WA MA NJ MI IL NY CA

Simulation Results

Date P(McCain) P(Tie) P(Obama) Avg_EV
11/04/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 346.9
11/03/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 346.9
11/02/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 347.1
11/01/08 0.1 0.0 99.8 348.2
10/31/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 349.3
10/30/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 347.8
10/29/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 350.8
10/28/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 355.0
10/27/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 356.3
10/26/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 356.7
10/25/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 353.1
10/24/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 353.5
10/23/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 354.2
10/22/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 353.9
10/21/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 350.2
10/20/08 0.0 0.0 100.0 350.9
10/19/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 342.9
10/18/08 0.0 0.0 99.9 349.3
10/17/08 0.0 0.0 99.9 349.3
10/16/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 351.8
10/15/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 352.9
10/14/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 352.2
10/13/08 0.1 0.0 99.9 352.8
10/12/08 0.1 0.0 99.8 351.6
10/11/08 0.3 0.0 99.7 348.1
10/10/08 0.3 0.0 99.7 348.2
10/09/08 0.3 0.0 99.6 348.0
10/08/08 0.4 0.0 99.6 345.7
10/07/08 0.5 0.1 99.5 344.6
10/06/08 0.7 0.1 99.2 343.0
10/05/08 1.3 0.1 98.6 340.3
10/04/08 3.6 0.3 96.2 328.6
10/03/08 3.6 0.3 96.2 328.5
10/02/08 4.1 0.3 95.6 326.8
10/01/08 4.8 0.3 95.0 324.9
09/30/08 4.9 0.3 94.8 324.6
09/29/08 8.6 0.5 90.9 314.7
09/28/08 11.5 0.6 87.8 307.7
09/27/08 16.9 0.8 82.2 300.9
09/26/08 16.9 0.8 82.2 300.9
09/25/08 23.1 1.1 75.9 293.0
09/24/08 24.5 1.2 74.3 291.3
09/23/08 28.4 1.1 70.4 287.8
09/22/08 27.4 1.1 71.5 289.2
09/21/08 29.5 1.0 69.5 287.3
09/20/08 37.1 1.2 61.7 280.0
09/19/08 37.7 1.2 61.1 279.3
09/18/08 38.5 1.2 60.3 278.4
09/17/08 42.6 1.2 56.2 274.5
09/16/08 46.3 1.2 52.5 271.2
09/15/08 48.4 1.3 50.4 270.0
09/14/08 50.5 1.2 48.2 268.2
09/13/08 50.4 1.3 48.4 268.1
09/12/08 47.1 1.2 51.7 270.7
09/11/08 45.4 1.3 53.3 272.0
09/10/08 43.2 1.3 55.5 273.7
09/09/08 38.6 1.4 59.9 278.0
09/08/08 36.9 1.5 61.7 280.0
09/07/08 31.6 1.1 67.2 284.3
09/06/08 15.4 0.8 83.7 297.3
09/05/08 15.4 0.8 83.8 297.3
09/04/08 16.0 0.8 83.1 297.0
09/03/08 16.1 0.9 83.1 297.0
09/02/08 16.1 0.9 83.0 296.9
09/01/08 16.7 0.9 82.4 296.8
08/31/08 16.9 0.9 82.3 296.7
08/30/08 16.8 0.9 82.3 296.7
08/29/08 17.3 0.9 81.8 295.9
08/28/08 17.3 0.9 81.9 296.0
08/27/08 17.4 0.9 81.7 295.9
08/26/08 18.1 0.9 81.0 295.2
08/25/08 20.3 1.0 78.7 292.1
08/24/08 20.2 1.0 78.8 292.2
08/23/08 20.5 0.9 78.6 292.7
08/22/08 20.6 1.0 78.5 292.6
08/21/08 21.4 1.0 77.6 291.8
08/20/08 17.9 0.9 81.3 296.1
08/19/08 20.6 0.9 78.6 293.0
08/18/08 18.8 0.9 80.3 294.2
08/17/08 14.2 0.7 85.1 299.5
08/16/08 13.8 0.7 85.4 300.2
08/15/08 14.0 0.7 85.3 300.2
08/14/08 12.3 0.8 87.0 302.2
08/13/08 10.7 0.7 88.6 304.3
08/12/08 9.3 0.7 90.0 306.3
08/11/08 9.0 0.7 90.3 306.9
08/10/08 8.6 0.6 90.8 308.1
08/09/08 8.5 0.6 90.9 308.5
08/08/08 8.4 0.6 90.9 308.6
08/07/08 8.4 0.6 91.0 308.6
08/06/08 8.4 0.6 91.0 308.6
08/05/08 8.5 0.6 90.9 308.5
08/04/08 8.5 0.6 90.9 308.5
08/03/08 8.2 0.6 91.2 308.9
08/02/08 7.5 0.5 91.9 310.6
08/01/08 7.5 0.5 92.0 310.7
07/31/08 7.5 0.5 91.9 310.6
07/30/08 7.6 0.6 91.8 310.7
07/29/08 7.5 0.5 92.0 311.0
07/28/08 7.4 0.5 92.1 310.6
07/27/08 6.6 0.5 92.9 312.9
07/26/08 7.5 0.5 92.1 312.2
07/25/08 7.3 0.5 92.2 312.4
07/24/08 7.3 0.5 92.2 312.4
07/23/08 7.7 0.5 91.8 311.9
07/22/08 7.1 0.5 92.4 313.2
07/21/08 6.5 0.4 93.1 313.4
07/20/08 5.2 0.3 94.5 317.5
07/19/08 6.4 0.4 93.2 314.6
07/18/08 6.4 0.4 93.2 314.6
07/17/08 6.4 0.4 93.1 314.6
07/16/08 6.3 0.4 93.3 314.9
07/15/08 6.5 0.4 93.0 314.3
07/14/08 6.8 0.5 92.7 313.8
07/13/08 7.2 0.5 92.3 313.5
07/12/08 7.5 0.5 92.0 313.1
07/11/08 7.5 0.5 92.0 313.1
07/10/08 7.5 0.5 92.0 313.0
07/09/08 10.2 0.6 89.2 308.0
07/08/08 10.0 0.6 89.3 308.3
07/07/08 9.9 0.6 89.5 309.5
07/06/08 9.0 0.6 90.4 310.5
07/05/08 9.0 0.6 90.4 310.5
07/04/08 9.0 0.6 90.4 310.5
07/03/08 9.0 0.6 90.4 310.5
07/02/08 8.9 0.6 90.5 310.5
07/01/08 9.1 0.6 90.3 309.8
06/30/08 9.7 0.7 89.6 308.4
06/29/08 9.8 0.7 89.5 308.3
06/28/08 10.4 0.7 88.9 308.6
06/27/08 10.4 0.7 88.8 308.6
06/26/08 10.9 0.7 88.3 308.4
06/25/08 10.0 0.7 89.3 310.2
06/24/08 10.0 0.7 89.3 310.0
06/23/08 14.7 0.8 84.6 303.8
06/22/08 15.3 0.8 83.9 303.0
06/21/08 18.4 0.9 80.7 298.8
06/20/08 18.4 0.9 80.7 298.8
06/19/08 18.3 0.9 80.8 298.9
06/18/08 17.9 0.9 81.2 298.9
06/17/08 17.2 0.9 81.9 298.7
06/16/08 20.0 0.9 79.1 295.4
06/15/08 32.0 1.2 66.8 283.0
06/14/08 38.0 1.3 60.7 278.6
06/13/08 37.9 1.3 60.8 278.7
06/12/08 37.8 1.3 60.9 278.7
06/11/08 39.0 1.3 59.7 277.7
06/10/08 39.4 1.3 59.3 277.4
06/09/08 42.8 1.3 55.9 274.7
06/08/08 46.8 1.3 51.9 271.7
06/07/08 47.5 1.3 51.2 270.9
06/06/08 47.3 1.3 51.4 271.0
06/05/08 47.4 1.3 51.3 270.9
06/04/08 45.4 1.3 53.4 272.5
06/03/08 46.0 1.2 52.8 272.1
06/02/08 47.6 1.2 51.2 270.8
06/01/08 47.7 1.2 51.1 270.7
05/31/08 46.4 1.2 52.4 271.7
05/30/08 46.4 1.2 52.3 271.8
05/29/08 46.5 1.2 52.3 271.7
05/28/08 45.8 1.2 53.0 272.2
05/27/08 46.9 1.2 51.9 270.6
05/26/08 46.4 1.2 52.4 270.5
05/25/08 46.6 1.2 52.2 270.4
05/24/08 45.8 1.2 53.0 271.9
05/23/08 45.9 1.2 53.0 271.9
05/22/08 45.9 1.1 53.0 271.8
05/21/08 45.2 1.2 53.7 272.4
05/20/08 46.0 1.1 52.8 272.0
05/19/08 42.1 1.0 56.9 275.1
05/18/08 42.0 1.0 56.9 275.3
05/17/08 54.1 1.1 44.9 265.0
05/16/08 54.0 1.1 44.9 265.1
05/15/08 53.9 1.1 45.0 265.2
05/14/08 55.2 1.0 43.8 263.5
05/13/08 55.6 1.0 43.3 263.1
05/12/08 55.2 1.0 43.8 263.5
05/11/08 55.4 1.0 43.6 263.1
05/10/08 55.4 1.0 43.6 263.2
05/09/08 55.3 1.0 43.7 263.2
05/08/08 54.9 1.0 44.1 263.5
05/07/08 54.9 1.0 44.1 263.7
05/06/08 52.1 1.0 46.8 266.3
05/05/08 54.5 1.0 44.5 264.1
05/04/08 52.0 0.9 47.0 266.5
05/03/08 52.0 1.0 47.0 266.5
05/02/08 51.9 1.0 47.1 266.6
05/01/08 52.1 1.0 47.0 266.4
04/30/08 53.0 1.0 46.0 265.3
04/29/08 51.3 1.0 47.7 266.8
04/28/08 59.9 1.0 39.0 258.9
04/27/08 63.0 1.0 36.0 255.8
04/26/08 63.1 1.0 35.9 255.7
04/25/08 62.9 1.0 36.1 255.8
04/24/08 61.8 1.0 37.2 256.9
04/23/08 61.7 1.0 37.3 257.0
04/22/08 66.2 0.9 32.8 252.7
04/21/08 66.7 0.9 32.4 252.1
04/20/08 64.6 1.0 34.4 254.4
04/19/08 64.5 1.0 34.5 254.5
04/18/08 64.6 1.0 34.4 254.4
04/17/08 64.5 1.0 34.5 254.5
04/16/08 64.5 1.0 34.5 254.5
04/15/08 65.7 1.0 33.3 253.4
04/14/08 65.7 1.0 33.4 253.5
04/13/08 65.7 1.0 33.4 253.5
04/12/08 59.5 1.0 39.5 259.7
04/11/08 59.3 1.0 39.7 259.8
04/10/08 59.4 1.0 39.6 259.7
04/09/08 60.2 1.0 38.9 259.2
04/08/08 62.7 1.0 36.3 256.7
04/07/08 62.8 0.9 36.2 256.5
04/06/08 59.4 1.0 39.6 260.0
04/05/08 58.0 1.0 41.0 261.3
04/04/08 58.2 1.0 40.8 261.1
04/03/08 55.7 1.1 43.1 265.0
04/02/08 54.3 1.1 44.6 266.2
04/01/08 54.2 1.1 44.6 266.2
03/31/08 54.2 1.1 44.7 266.3
03/30/08 59.3 1.0 39.7 262.2
03/29/08 57.7 1.1 41.2 263.5
03/28/08 57.8 1.0 41.2 263.4
03/27/08 57.7 1.0 41.2 263.4
03/26/08 53.9 1.1 45.0 267.0
03/25/08 52.7 1.1 46.1 268.0
03/24/08 51.5 1.1 47.3 269.1
03/23/08 50.4 1.1 48.5 270.0
03/22/08 50.5 1.1 48.4 269.9
03/21/08 50.5 1.1 48.4 270.0
03/20/08 50.5 1.1 48.4 270.0
03/19/08 49.9 1.1 49.1 270.5
03/18/08 50.0 1.1 48.8 270.4
03/17/08 51.2 1.1 47.7 269.1
03/16/08 47.3 1.2 51.6 272.5
03/15/08 41.4 1.1 57.5 277.7
03/14/08 41.4 1.0 57.5 277.4
03/13/08 41.6 1.1 57.3 277.2
03/12/08 40.1 1.1 58.9 278.6
03/11/08 40.2 1.1 58.7 278.5
03/10/08 41.0 1.0 58.0 277.6
03/09/08 35.6 1.0 63.4 282.6
03/08/08 33.6 1.0 65.4 284.5
03/07/08 33.6 1.0 65.4 284.6
03/06/08 33.6 1.0 65.4 284.5
03/05/08 33.6 1.0 65.4 284.6
03/04/08 33.6 1.0 65.4 284.5
03/03/08 33.7 1.0 65.3 284.2
03/02/08 33.9 1.0 65.1 284.2
03/01/08 33.8 1.0 65.2 284.3
02/29/08 33.8 1.0 65.2 284.2
02/28/08 33.8 1.0 65.2 284.2
02/27/08 44.6 1.3 54.0 271.2
02/26/08 42.3 1.4 56.3 273.2
02/25/08 41.9 1.3 56.8 273.5
02/24/08 42.8 1.3 55.8 273.2
02/23/08 42.9 1.3 55.7 273.3
02/22/08 42.8 1.4 55.9 273.6
02/21/08 41.8 1.3 56.9 274.7
02/20/08 41.6 1.3 57.1 274.7
02/19/08 42.0 1.3 56.7 274.5
02/18/08 40.7 1.4 57.9 275.5
02/17/08 44.4 1.5 54.1 271.8
02/16/08 83.1 0.4 16.5 237.6
02/15/08 82.1 0.4 17.5 237.7
02/14/08 82.2 0.4 17.4 237.7
02/13/08 85.2 0.3 14.5 232.3
02/12/08 86.4 0.4 13.2 230.5
02/11/08 95.9 0.3 3.9 214.1
02/10/08 97.8 0.2 2.0 205.7
02/09/08 98.0 0.1 1.8 204.5
02/08/08 98.0 0.2 1.8 204.4
02/07/08 98.0 0.2 1.9 204.5
02/06/08 98.0 0.2 1.8 204.3
02/05/08 98.0 0.2 1.8 204.3
02/04/08 98.0 0.2 1.8 204.5
02/03/08 98.2 0.1 1.6 203.7
02/02/08 98.2 0.1 1.6 203.7
02/01/08 98.2 0.1 1.7 203.7
01/31/08 98.2 0.1 1.7 203.4
01/30/08 98.2 0.1 1.6 203.3
01/29/08 98.2 0.2 1.6 203.4
01/28/08 98.2 0.1 1.6 203.4
01/27/08 98.2 0.1 1.7 203.3
01/26/08 99.0 0.1 0.9 196.9
01/25/08 99.0 0.1 0.9 196.8
01/24/08 99.0 0.1 0.9 196.9
01/23/08 99.2 0.1 0.7 194.6
01/22/08 99.2 0.1 0.8 194.6
01/21/08 99.2 0.1 0.7 194.5
01/20/08 97.5 0.2 2.2 205.4
01/19/08 97.5 0.2 2.2 205.3
01/18/08 97.5 0.2 2.2 205.3
01/17/08 97.5 0.2 2.2 205.2
01/16/08 97.0 0.3 2.7 209.2
01/15/08 97.1 0.3 2.7 209.1
01/14/08 97.0 0.3 2.8 209.1
01/13/08 97.0 0.3 2.7 209.2
01/12/08 95.9 0.4 3.7 213.6
01/11/08 95.8 0.4 3.8 213.5
01/10/08 95.8 0.4 3.8 213.6
01/09/08 95.8 0.4 3.8 213.6
01/08/08 95.8 0.4 3.8 213.6
01/07/08 88.7 0.5 10.8 230.1
01/06/08 88.8 0.5 10.8 230.1
01/05/08 88.2 0.5 11.3 230.6
01/04/08 88.3 0.5 11.3 230.5
01/03/08 85.0 0.5 14.5 234.5
01/02/08 86.3 0.4 13.3 233.2
01/01/08 86.0 0.4 13.5 234.4